Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior prediction
EredivisieRound 10Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard12:15
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ExcelsiorMost likelyFortuna Sittard win · 38%
Best price2.70 Onexbet
Prediction
37%1Fortuna Sittardmarket 36%
26%XDrawmarket 24%
37%2Excelsiormarket 40%
Fortuna Sittard+1.8 ppDraw+1.2 ppExcelsior-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Fortuna Sittardpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Excelsiorpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.36 |
| Onexbet | 2.70best | 3.82best | 2.44best |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Fortuna Sittard at 2.70 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
2.34units · 0.2% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Fortuna Sittard
- D1-1TWE
- W1-0WI
- L1-5AJA
- W3-2ADH
- W3-2GRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Excelsior
- L1-5GRO
- D2-2AJA
- L1-2UTR
- D2-2NN
- W3-0WI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Fortuna Sittard
No reported absences.
Excelsior
No reported absences.
Head to head
Fortuna Sittard 1Draws 0Excelsior 1
- FS 2-1 EXC
- EXC 1-0 FS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Fortuna Sittard
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.91last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.18last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.1last 10
- Shots
- 11.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 8.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Excelsior
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.51last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Line movement
Fortuna Sittard—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Excelsior—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Fortuna Sittard result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Away form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.17Away form (away)7.46Defensive xG form (away)1.78League id88.0Recent form (home)5.70Home form (home)3.80
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.