Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle prediction
EredivisieRound 15Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard21:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
PEC ZwolleMost likelyFortuna Sittard win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Fortuna Sittard win
Oddbert gives Fortuna Sittard a 49% chance of winning.
49%Fortuna Sittard
24%Draw
27%PEC Zwolle
In 100 matches like this, Fortuna Sittard would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Fortuna Sittard doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Fortuna Sittard win 49, Draw 24, PEC Zwolle win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
49%1Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard win
24%XDrawDraw
27%2PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Fortuna Sittard (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Fortuna Sittard
- D2-2TEL
- D1-1FEY
- W1-0EXC
- D2-2NN
- D1-1TWE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PEC Zwolle
- D1-1WI
- W1-0ADH
- D1-1UTR
- W4-1GAE
- L0-1CAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Fortuna Sittard
Absence data is not available for this match.
PEC Zwolle
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Fortuna Sittard 1Draws 0PEC Zwolle 3
- FS 3-2 PZ
- PZ 1-0 FS
- FS 1-4 PZ
- PZ 3-1 FS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Fortuna Sittard
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.85last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.96last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.7last 10
- Shots
- 9.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- M. Ihattaren4G 3A9 apps
- A. Descotte5G 0A9 apps
- L. Zeefuik2G 1A8 apps
PEC Zwolle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.14last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- D. Mbayo1G 4A10 apps
- K. Kostons4G 0A8 apps
- T. Oosting2G 1A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 12,500
Line movement
Fortuna Sittard—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PEC Zwolle—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Fortuna Sittard result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (home) and Fixture congestion (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.76Fixture congestion (home)0.00What's at stake (away)0.20Pi-rating edge0.41Defensive xG form (away)1.30Home advantage (team-tuned)50.1
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.