Frosinone vs Sassuolo prediction
Serie ARound 7Stadio Benito Stirpe
Frosinone20:45
Fri 16 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SassuoloMost likelySassuolo win · 38%
Best price2.91 Onexbet
Prediction
36%1Frosinonemarket 39%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
37%2Sassuolomarket 35%
Frosinone-3.0 ppDraw+0.4 ppSassuolo+2.6 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Frosinonepays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Sassuolopays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.75best | 2.75 |
| Betvictor | 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 3.50 | 2.83 |
| Onexbet | 2.53 | 3.60 | 2.91best |
| Pinnacle | 2.55best | 3.56 | 2.77 |
| Sbo | 2.31 | 3.43 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Sassuolo at 2.91 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
12.04units · 1.2% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Frosinone
- L0-3NAP
- W2-0COM
- D1-1GEN
- W3-2VEN
- W3-0FIO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sassuolo
- D1-1AM
- L1-2MON
- W3-2JUV
- D2-2BOL
- W2-1TOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Frosinone
No reported absences.
Sassuolo
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Frosinone
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 6
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.33last 5
- xG against / game
- 2.30last 5
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 6
- BTTS
- 2 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 6
- Shots
- 16.8last 6
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 6
- Fouls
- 16.5last 6
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 6
Sassuolo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.67last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Key players
- C. Odenthal1G 0A1 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Line movement
Frosinone—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sassuolo—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Sassuolo result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Rest-days edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-88.3Rest-days edge0.89Away form (away)1.32Attacking xG form (home)2.51League id135Home advantage (team-tuned)16.4
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.