FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin prediction
BundesligaRound 11
FSV Mainz 0515:30
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Union BerlinMost likelyFSV Mainz 05 win · 48%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: FSV Mainz 05 win
Oddbert gives FSV Mainz 05 a 48% chance of winning.
48%FSV Mainz 05
25%Draw
27%Union Berlin
In 100 matches like this, FSV Mainz 05 would win about 48. In the other 52 or so, FSV Mainz 05 doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: FSV Mainz 05 win 48, Draw 25, Union Berlin win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
48%1FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05 win
25%XDrawDraw
27%2Union BerlinUnion Berlin win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
FSV Mainz 05 meet Union Berlin. The model leans toward FSV Mainz 05, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and League id. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for FSV Mainz 05 (48%), doesn't happen in about 52 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FSV Mainz 05
- L1-2BM
- L1-4SE
- L2-3WB
- W1-0FS0
- L3-4BL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Union Berlin
- L0-2SF
- D1-11FK
- D1-1FA
- D0-0BD
- W1-0SE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FSV Mainz 05
Absence data is not available for this match.
Union Berlin
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
FSV Mainz 05 0Draws 2Union Berlin 2
- FM0 1-3 UB
- UB 2-2 FM0
- UB 2-1 FM0
- FM0 1-1 UB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FSV Mainz 05
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.06last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.69last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 13.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- P. Tietz7G 1A10 apps
- A. Caci3G 3A10 apps
- S. Becker2G 4A10 apps
Union Berlin
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.7last 10
Key players
- T. Skarke2G 1A10 apps
- A. Ilić2G 0A2 apps
- J. Haberer2G 0A9 apps
Line movement
FSV Mainz 05—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Union Berlin—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward FSV Mainz 05, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and League id. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.61League id78.0Recent form (home)1.36Expected goals (home)2.02Defensive xG form (home)1.64Recent form (away)3.01
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.