FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction
BundesligaRound 7
FSV Mainz 0515:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Werder BremenMost likelyFSV Mainz 05 win · 51%
Best price1.84 Onexbet
Prediction
51%1FSV Mainz 05market 54%
24%XDrawmarket 23%
25%2Werder Bremenmarket 23%
FSV Mainz 05-3.0 ppDraw+1.1 ppWerder Bremen+1.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | FSV Mainz 05pays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Werder Bremenpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 4.15 | 4.10 |
| Onexbet | 1.84best | 4.26best | 4.21best |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FSV Mainz 05 at 1.84 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FSV Mainz 05
- L3-4BL
- W4-3BM
- L1-3EF
- W5-0HS
- D0-0SP0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Werder Bremen
- D2-2BD
- W3-2FA
- D1-11FK
- W3-1RL
- L1-4SF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FSV Mainz 05
No reported absences.
Werder Bremen
No reported absences.
Head to head
FSV Mainz 05 1Draws 1Werder Bremen 2
- WB 0-2 FM0
- FM0 1-1 WB
- WB 1-0 FM0
- FM0 1-2 WB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FSV Mainz 05
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Werder Bremen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.84last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 12.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
Line movement
FSV Mainz 05—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Werder Bremen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FSV Mainz 05 result here, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Home advantage (team-tuned)-5.07Pi-rating edge0.29Defensive xG form (away)2.68Attacking xG form (home)2.37Attacking xG form (away)2.40Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)21.2
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.