FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League B - 6
FYR Macedonia20:45
Mon 16 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SloveniaMost likelySlovenia win · 62%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Slovenia win
Oddbert gives Slovenia a 62% chance of winning.
15%FYR Macedonia
23%Draw
62%Slovenia
In 100 matches like this, Slovenia would win about 62. In the other 38 or so, Slovenia doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: FYR Macedonia win 15, Draw 23, Slovenia win 62.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
15%1FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia winmarket 13%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 23%
62%2SloveniaSlovenia winmarket 64%
Our model vs market
FYR Macedonia +2.3 ppDraw +0.2 ppSlovenia -2.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 book's price) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
FYR Macedonia meet Slovenia. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Slovenia; the model's main factors are Elo difference and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Slovenia (62%), doesn't happen in about 38 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FYR Macedonia
- L0-3SWI
- L0-2SCO
- L0-2SLO
- L0-3SWI
- L0-4TRK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Slovenia
- W2-1SCO
- L1-2SWI
- W2-0FM
- D0-0SCO
- L1-2CRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FYR Macedonia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Slovenia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
FYR Macedonia 1Draws 2Slovenia 1
- SLO 2-0 FM
- FM 1-1 SLO
- FM 2-1 SLO
- SLO 1-1 FM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FYR Macedonia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 1 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Bojan Miovski1G 0A7 apps
- Darko Velkovski0G 1A3 apps
Slovenia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Aljoša Matko2G 2A6 apps
- D. Šturm1G 2A8 apps
- A. Šporar1G 1A5 apps
Line movement
FYR Macedonia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Slovenia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Slovenia; the model's main factors are Elo difference and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference-179Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.