Genoa vs Venezia prediction
Serie ARound 8
Genoa15:00
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
VeneziaMost likelyGenoa win · 48%
Best price2.18 Onexbet
Prediction
48%1Genoamarket 45%
27%XDrawmarket 29%
25%2Veneziamarket 26%
Genoa+3.0 ppDraw-1.5 ppVenezia-1.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Genoapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Veneziapays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40best | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.28 | 3.72 |
| Onexbet | 2.18best | 3.38 | 3.83best |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.19 | 3.71 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Genoa at 2.18 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
11.35units · 1.1% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Genoa
- W2-1FIO
- L1-2PAR
- D1-1FRO
- L1-4COM
- L0-1LAZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Venezia
- L0-2LAZ
- L2-4FIO
- L2-3FRO
- L0-2AM
- L0-2LEC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Genoa
No reported absences.
Venezia
No reported absences.
Head to head
Genoa 1Draws 0Venezia 1
- GEN 2-0 VEN
- VEN 2-0 GEN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Genoa
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.91last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.44last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Venezia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.87last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Line movement
Genoa—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Venezia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Genoa result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Rest-days edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)4.51Rest-days edge-20.8Home advantage (team-tuned)1.81Attacking xG form (away)3.79Pi-rating edge0.30Recent form (home)3.49
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.