Georgia vs Hungary prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League B - 5
Georgia18:00
Sat 14 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
HungaryMost likelyHungary win · 40%
Best price2.42 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Hungary win
Oddbert gives Hungary a 40% chance of winning.
30%Georgia
30%Draw
40%Hungary
In 100 matches like this, Hungary would win about 40. In the other 60 or so, Hungary doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Georgia win 30, Draw 30, Hungary win 40.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
30%1GeorgiaGeorgia winmarket 29%
30%XDrawDrawmarket 31%
40%2HungaryHungary winmarket 40%
Our model vs market
Georgia +0.9 ppDraw -1.0 ppHungary +0.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Georgia meet Hungary. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans only slightly toward Hungary in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Georgiapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Hungarypays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.30best | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.42best |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.15best | 2.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Hungary at 2.42 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Hungary (40%), doesn't happen in about 60 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Georgia
- D0-0NI
- L0-1HUN
- D0-0UKR
- L0-1NI
- W2-0BAH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Hungary
- W2-1UKR
- W1-0GEO
- D0-0NI
- L0-1UKR
- W3-1KAZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Georgia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Hungary
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Georgia 0Draws 0Hungary 1
- HUN 1-0 GEO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Georgia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Key players
Player data from 6 of 10 matches
- L. Lochoshvili1G 0A6 apps
- Giorgi Kvilitaia0G 1A2 apps
Hungary
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
- D. Szoboszlai1G 4A10 apps
- B. Varga4G 0A4 apps
- M. Kerkez1G 1A8 apps
Line movement
Georgia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Hungary—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans only slightly toward Hungary in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1642Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.