Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
La LigaRound 9Coliseum Alfonso Pérez
Getafe21:00
Mon 19 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Rayo VallecanoMost likelyRayo Vallecano win · 39%
Best price2.74 Pinnacle
Prediction
33%1Getafemarket 33%
28%XDrawmarket 31%
39%2Rayo Vallecanomarket 36%
Getafe+0.2 ppDraw-3.0 ppRayo Vallecano+2.8 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Getafepays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 9% more than the typical book | Rayo Vallecanopays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.05 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.63 |
| Betvictor | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.05 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.89 | 3.18 | 2.62 |
| Onexbet | 2.97 | 3.26best | 2.69 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99best | 2.95 | 2.74best |
| Sbo | 2.67 | 2.81 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Rayo Vallecano at 2.74 (Pinnacle).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
9.18units · 0.9% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Getafe
- L0-3BAR
- W1-0MAL
- L0-1RB
- D1-1DLC
- D1-1CV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1OSA
- W2-1ESP
- L1-4RM
- W3-2RS
- L2-5BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Getafe
No reported absences.
Rayo Vallecano
No reported absences.
Head to head
Getafe 0Draws 2Rayo Vallecano 2
- GET 0-2 RV
- RV 1-1 GET
- RV 1-0 GET
- GET 0-0 RV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Getafe
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.53last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.24last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 9.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.3last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.0last 10
Rayo Vallecano
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.29last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe
Line movement
Getafe—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Rayo Vallecano—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Rayo Vallecano result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-58.7Attacking xG form (home)0.57Rest-days edge-21.2Pi-rating edge0.00What's at stake (home)0.07Defensive xG form (away)1.63
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.