GIL Vicente vs FC Porto prediction
Primeira LigaRound 9
GIL Vicente21:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FC PortoMost likelyFC Porto win · 62%
Best price1.51 Onexbet
Prediction
18%1GIL Vicentemarket 11%
20%XDrawmarket 21%
62%2FC Portomarket 68%
GIL Vicente+6.7 ppDraw-0.7 ppFC Porto-6.0 pp
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | GIL Vicentepays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | FC Portopays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.42 |
| Betano | 7.70 | 4.30 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 8.00best | 4.50best | 1.36 |
| Marathonbet | 7.40 | 4.25 | 1.42 |
| Onexbet | 7.80 | 4.17 | 1.51best |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FC Porto at 1.51 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
GIL Vicente
- W1-0MOR
- D1-1MAR
- L1-3BEN
- L0-1AV
- D0-0FAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FC Porto
- W2-1MAR
- W3-1BEN
- W4-1CP
- L0-2MC
- W2-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
GIL Vicente
No reported absences.
FC Porto
No reported absences.
Head to head
GIL Vicente 1Draws 0FC Porto 3
- FP 3-0 GV
- GV 0-2 FP
- GV 3-1 FP
- FP 3-0 GV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
GIL Vicente
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.15last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.13last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 13.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
FC Porto
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.91last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 13.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 7
Line movement
GIL Vicente—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FC Porto—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FC Porto result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.93Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-265Away form (away)10.3Attacking xG form (home)2.27What's at stake (home)0.02What's at stake (away)0.13
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.