Greece vs Serbia prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 6
Greece20:45
Mon 16 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SerbiaMost likelyGreece win · 70%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Greece win
Oddbert gives Greece a 70% chance of winning.
70%Greece
18%Draw
12%Serbia
In 100 matches like this, Greece would win about 70. In the other 30 or so, Greece doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Greece win 70, Draw 18, Serbia win 12.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
70%1GreeceGreece winmarket 72%
18%XDrawDrawmarket 17%
12%2SerbiaSerbia winmarket 11%
Our model vs market
Greece -2.5 ppDraw +0.9 ppSerbia +1.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 book's price) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Greece meet Serbia. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Greece; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Greece (70%), doesn't happen in about 30 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Greece
- D0-0GER
- D2-2NET
- W1-0GER
- W2-1SER
- L0-1ITA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Serbia
- L1-2NET
- L0-2GER
- L1-2NET
- L1-2GRE
- L1-5MEX
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Greece
Absence data is not available for this match.
Serbia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Greece 1Draws 0Serbia 0
- SER 1-2 GRE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Greece
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- C. Tzolis2G 1A8 apps
- Giorgos Masouras2G 1A8 apps
- K. Tsimikas1G 1A9 apps
Serbia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- Andrija Živković1G 2A6 apps
- A. Terzić0G 2A6 apps
- S. Pavlović1G 0A8 apps
Line movement
Greece—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Serbia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Greece; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1710Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.