Groningen vs Ajax prediction
EredivisieRound 9Euroborg
Groningen16:45
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AjaxMost likelyAjax win · 54%
Best price1.75 Pinnacle
Prediction
24%1Groningenmarket 22%
22%XDrawmarket 21%
54%2Ajaxmarket 57%
Groningen+1.9 ppDraw+1.1 ppAjax-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Groningenpays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | Ajaxpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 4.35 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| Betvictor | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.70 |
| Marathonbet | 4.15 | 4.25 | 1.67 |
| Onexbet | 4.28best | 4.38best | 1.72 |
| Pinnacle | 3.94 | 4.37 | 1.75best |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Ajax at 1.75 (Pinnacle).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Groningen
- W5-1EXC
- W3-0PZ
- D1-1GAE
- D2-2TWE
- L2-3FS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Ajax
- D1-1NN
- D2-2EXC
- W5-1WI
- W5-1FS
- L1-3PE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Groningen
No reported absences.
Ajax
No reported absences.
Head to head
Groningen 1Draws 1Ajax 3
- AJA 2-0 GRO
- GRO 3-1 AJA
- AJA 2-0 GRO
- GRO 2-2 AJA
- AJA 3-1 GRO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Groningen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.46last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.78last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 9.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Ajax
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.33last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.2last 10
- Shots
- 22.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 8
Venue
- Venue
- Euroborg, Groningen
Line movement
Groningen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Ajax—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Ajax result here, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)9.69Defensive xG form (home)1.53Pi-rating edge-0.37Home advantage (team-tuned)47.7What's at stake (away)0.22What's at stake (home)0.10
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.