Groningen vs Willem II prediction
EredivisieRound 14Euroborg
Groningen20:00
Fri 27 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Willem IIMost likelyGroningen win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Groningen win
Oddbert gives Groningen a 65% chance of winning.
65%Groningen
24%Draw
11%Willem II
In 100 matches like this, Groningen would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Groningen doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Groningen win 65, Draw 24, Willem II win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1GroningenGroningen win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2Willem IIWillem II win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Groningen (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Groningen
- L3-4AA
- L2-3SR
- D2-2NN
- L2-5AJA
- W5-1EXC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Willem II
- D1-1PZ
- L0-7PE
- L1-6CAM
- L2-3SR
- L1-3UTR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Groningen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Willem II
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Groningen 2Draws 0Willem II 0
- WI 1-3 GRO
- GRO 2-0 WI
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Groningen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.67last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- B. Willumsson7G 1A10 apps
- T. van Bergen6G 2A10 apps
- D. van der Werff1G 3A8 apps
Willem II
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 3.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.07last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 8
Key players
- Uriel van Aalst2G 2A10 apps
- D. Haen2G 1A10 apps
- V. van Crooij0G 2A6 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Euroborg, Groningen
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 22,579
Line movement
Groningen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Willem II—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Groningen result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Recent form (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.87Recent form (away)0.94Defensive xG form (home)2.63Expected goals (home)3.45Away form (away)0.67Recent form (home)1.81
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.