Hamburger SV vs Bayern München prediction
BundesligaRound 11
Hamburger SV15:30
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Bayern MünchenMost likelyBayern München win · 66%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bayern München win
Oddbert gives Bayern München a 66% chance of winning.
15%Hamburger SV
19%Draw
66%Bayern München
In 100 matches like this, Bayern München would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, Bayern München doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Hamburger SV win 15, Draw 19, Bayern München win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
15%1Hamburger SVHamburger SV win
19%XDrawDraw
66%2Bayern MünchenBayern München win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Hamburger SV meet Bayern München. The model leans toward Bayern München, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Bayern München (66%), doesn't happen in about 34 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Hamburger SV
- W3-1BM
- L1-3EF
- L0-1SP0
- W1-0VS
- W3-21H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bayern München
- W2-1FM0
- W2-0AM
- D2-2BD
- W3-1SF
- D2-2ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Hamburger SV
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bayern München
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Hamburger SV 0Draws 1Bayern München 1
- HS 2-2 BM
- BM 5-0 HS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Hamburger SV
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- A. Grønbæk1G 4A9 apps
- M. Muheim3G 1A6 apps
- Y. Poulsen2G 0A8 apps
Bayern München
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 3.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.9last 10
- Shots
- 23.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 8.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Key players
- H. Kane7G 10A10 apps
- M. Olise5G 3A9 apps
- L. Diaz4G 1A6 apps
Line movement
Hamburger SV—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bayern München—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Bayern München, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.83Expected goals (away)3.15Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-304Attacking xG form (away)2.68League id78.0Recent form (away)8.38
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.