Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
BundesligaRound 6
Hamburger SV15:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
VfB StuttgartMost likelyVfB Stuttgart win · 50%
Best price1.90 Onexbet
Prediction
26%1Hamburger SVmarket 24%
24%XDrawmarket 23%
50%2VfB Stuttgartmarket 53%
Hamburger SV+1.5 ppDraw+1.5 ppVfB Stuttgart-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Hamburger SVpays 10% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | VfB Stuttgartpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.85 | 4.15 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 4.20best | 1.80 |
| Betvictor | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.98 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| Onexbet | 4.08 | 4.08 | 1.90best |
| Pinnacle | 4.12best | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| Sbo | 3.28 | 3.73 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — VfB Stuttgart at 1.90 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Hamburger SV
- W3-21H
- W2-11FK
- L0-5RL
- L0-5FM0
- L0-2BD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
VfB Stuttgart
- W2-0SP0
- L0-1BD
- L1-21H
- W3-1VIK
- W4-11FK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Hamburger SV
No reported absences.
VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences.
Head to head
Hamburger SV 1Draws 0VfB Stuttgart 1
- VS 4-0 HS
- HS 2-1 VS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Hamburger SV
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.70last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.4last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
VfB Stuttgart
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.94last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.16last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.7last 10
- Shots
- 16.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Line movement
Hamburger SV—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
VfB Stuttgart—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a VfB Stuttgart result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-72.3Attacking xG form (away)3.02Home advantage (team-tuned)67.2Defensive xG form (away)2.51League id78.0Defensive xG form (home)2.98
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.