Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland prediction
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 1
Heart Of Midlothian21:00
Thu 15 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FC NordsjaellandMost likelyFC Nordsjaelland win · 45%
Best price2.30 Betano
Prediction
30%1Heart Of Midlothianmarket 32%
25%XDrawmarket 25%
45%2FC Nordsjaellandmarket 43%
Heart Of Midlothian-2.0 ppDraw-0.1 ppFC Nordsjaelland+2.1 pp
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Heart Of Midlothian | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | FC Nordsjaellandpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.75best | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.30best |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91best | 3.62 | 2.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FC Nordsjaelland at 2.30 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
8.05units · 0.8% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Heart Of Midlothian
- D1-1RV
- D2-2RV
- D1-1BEN
- L1-6BEN
- L0-2SG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FC Nordsjaelland
- D0-0ODE
- L1-4VIB
- W2-0AAR
- D2-2FM
- L0-2FC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences.
FC Nordsjaelland
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Heart Of Midlothian
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.04last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.81last 4
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
FC Nordsjaelland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.12last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 8
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- D. Kos
- Yellows / game
- 0.8
- Matches officiated
- 5
Line movement
Heart Of Midlothian—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FC Nordsjaelland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FC Nordsjaelland result here, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Rest-days edge44.0Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-281Attacking xG form (home)4.23Home advantage (team-tuned)44.1Recent form (home)2.80Pi-rating edge-0.42
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.