Heart Of Midlothian vs Monaco prediction
UEFA Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 4
Heart Of Midlothian18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
MonacoMost likelyMonaco win · 68%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Monaco win
Oddbert gives Monaco a 68% chance of winning.
9%Heart Of Midlothian
23%Draw
68%Monaco
In 100 matches like this, Monaco would win about 68. In the other 32 or so, Monaco doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Heart Of Midlothian win 9, Draw 23, Monaco win 68.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
9%1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian win
23%XDrawDraw
68%2MonacoMonaco win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Monaco (68%), doesn't happen in about 32 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Heart Of Midlothian
- L1-3FT
- L0-2TRA
- D1-1FN
- D1-1RV
- D2-2RV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Monaco
- D1-1LM
- W2-0FN
- L1-3PF
- D1-1LIL
- W3-0SF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Heart Of Midlothian
Absence data is not available for this match.
Monaco
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Heart Of Midlothian
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.14last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 4
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- James Wilson2G 0A6 apps
- Blair Spittal1G 1A5 apps
- Oisin McEntee1G 0A5 apps
Monaco
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.27last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Paris Josua Brunner4G 1A8 apps
- E. Diop2G 2A8 apps
- L. Camara1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Heart Of Midlothian—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Monaco—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Monaco result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.52Expected goals (away)3.41Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-243League id848Expected goals (home)0.20Attacking xG form (home)2.85
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.