Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction
EredivisieRound 9Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen20:00
Fri 16 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ExcelsiorMost likelyHeerenveen win · 53%
Best price1.80 Onexbet
Prediction
53%1Heerenveenmarket 55%
26%XDrawmarket 23%
21%2Excelsiormarket 22%
Heerenveen-2.5 ppDraw+3.0 ppExcelsior-0.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Heerenveenpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Excelsiorpays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.95 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| Betvictor | 1.75 | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.79 | 4.10best | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.82 | 4.20 |
| Onexbet | 1.80best | 3.94 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.82 | 4.45best |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Heerenveen at 1.80 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Heerenveen
- L0-2PE
- W4-0SR
- D0-0TEL
- L2-3AA
- D2-2WI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Excelsior
- L1-5GRO
- D2-2AJA
- L1-2UTR
- D2-2NN
- W3-0WI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Heerenveen
No reported absences.
Excelsior
No reported absences.
Head to head
Heerenveen 2Draws 0Excelsior 0
- EXC 1-2 HEE
- HEE 2-1 EXC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Heerenveen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
Excelsior
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.51last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Line movement
Heerenveen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Excelsior—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Heerenveen result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.02Defensive xG form (away)1.78Away form (away)7.46Recent form (away)2.44League id88.0Rest-days edge1.86
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.