Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
EredivisieRound 11Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen18:45
Sat 31 Oct
Prediction T-24h
NEC NijmegenMost likelyHeerenveen win · 47%
Prediction
47%1Heerenveen
28%XDraw
25%2NEC Nijmegen
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Heerenveen
- L0-2PE
- W4-0SR
- D0-0TEL
- L2-3AA
- D2-2WI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1AJA
- D1-1GAE
- L0-3CAM
- D2-2EXC
- L1-3FEY
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Heerenveen
No reported absences.
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences.
Head to head
Heerenveen 2Draws 1NEC Nijmegen 1
- NN 2-2 HEE
- HEE 3-2 NN
- HEE 1-0 NN
- NN 3-0 HEE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Heerenveen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
NEC Nijmegen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.44last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.95last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Line movement
Heerenveen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
NEC Nijmegen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Heerenveen result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.02Defensive xG form (away)2.04Attacking xG form (away)1.04Home advantage (team-tuned)103Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)144Attacking xG form (home)1.55
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.