HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden prediction
UEFA Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 4
HNK Hajduk Split21:00
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
St. TruidenMost likelyHNK Hajduk Split win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: HNK Hajduk Split win
Oddbert gives HNK Hajduk Split a 65% chance of winning.
65%HNK Hajduk Split
24%Draw
11%St. Truiden
In 100 matches like this, HNK Hajduk Split would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, HNK Hajduk Split doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: HNK Hajduk Split win 65, Draw 24, St. Truiden win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2St. TruidenSt. Truiden win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for HNK Hajduk Split (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
HNK Hajduk Split
- L0-1LRI
- W1-0FT
- W2-1AJA
- W3-2RC
- D2-2RC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
St. Truiden
- D1-1BRA
- W1-0FM
- W2-0FI1
- L2-4ON
- W1-0ON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
HNK Hajduk Split
Absence data is not available for this match.
St. Truiden
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
HNK Hajduk Split
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 3
- xG against / game
- 0.80last 3
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 8
- Shots
- 11.6last 5
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 8
- Fouls
- 18.1last 7
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
Player data from 4 of 10 matches
- Marin Šotiček1G 2A4 apps
- Dalisson de Almeida1G 1A4 apps
- Michele Šego1G 1A4 apps
St. Truiden
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 5
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 5
- xG for / game
- 1.45last 3
- xG against / game
- 1.15last 3
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 5
- BTTS
- 2 / 5
- Over 2.5
- 1 / 5
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 5
- Shots
- 15.6last 5
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 5
- Fouls
- 14.0last 5
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 5
Key players
- Ilias Sebaoui2G 0A5 apps
- Robert-Jan Vanwesemael1G 1A5 apps
- Nelson Ishiwatari1G 0A5 apps
Line movement
HNK Hajduk Split—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
St. Truiden—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a HNK Hajduk Split result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)464Defensive xG form (away)2.78Home form (home)10.8Home advantage (team-tuned)117What's at stake (away)0.00Recent form (away)7.21
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.