Hungary vs Northern Ireland prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League B - 6
Hungary20:45
Tue 17 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Northern IrelandMost likelyHungary win · 52%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Hungary win
Oddbert gives Hungary a 52% chance of winning.
52%Hungary
26%Draw
22%Northern Ireland
In 100 matches like this, Hungary would win about 52. In the other 48 or so, Hungary doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Hungary win 52, Draw 26, Northern Ireland win 22.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
52%1HungaryHungary winmarket 52%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 27%
22%2Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland winmarket 21%
Our model vs market
Hungary -0.3 ppDraw -0.5 ppNorthern Ireland +0.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 book's price) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Hungary (52%), doesn't happen in about 48 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Hungary
- W2-1UKR
- W1-0GEO
- D0-0NI
- L0-1UKR
- W3-1KAZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Northern Ireland
- D0-0GEO
- W3-0UKR
- D0-0HUN
- W1-0GEO
- L1-3FRA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Hungary
Absence data is not available for this match.
Northern Ireland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Hungary 1Draws 1Northern Ireland 0
- NI 0-0 HUN
- NI 0-1 HUN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Hungary
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
- D. Szoboszlai1G 4A10 apps
- B. Varga4G 0A4 apps
- M. Kerkez1G 1A8 apps
Northern Ireland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Key players
- Jamie Donley2G 0A10 apps
- Ciaron Brown2G 0A9 apps
- I. Price1G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Hungary—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Northern Ireland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Hungary result here; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1642Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.