Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League C - 6
Iceland18:00
Mon 16 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LuxembourgMost likelyIceland win · 63%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Iceland win
Oddbert gives Iceland a 63% chance of winning.
63%Iceland
21%Draw
16%Luxembourg
In 100 matches like this, Iceland would win about 63. In the other 37 or so, Iceland doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Iceland win 63, Draw 21, Luxembourg win 16.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
63%1IcelandIceland win
21%XDrawDraw
16%2LuxembourgLuxembourg win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Iceland meet Luxembourg. The model leans toward Iceland, shaped mainly by International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Iceland (63%), doesn't happen in about 37 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Iceland
- D0-0EST
- W3-0BUL
- W3-0LUX
- D1-1EST
- L0-3ARG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Luxembourg
- L0-2BUL
- L0-1EST
- L0-3ICE
- W2-1BUL
- W1-0ALB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Iceland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Luxembourg
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Iceland 1Draws 0Luxembourg 0
- LUX 0-3 ICE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Iceland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- O. Óskarsson5G 2A6 apps
- A. Guðjohnsen2G 1A5 apps
- M. Ellertsson1G 1A7 apps
Luxembourg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 1 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- Vincent Thill3G 0A7 apps
- L. Barreiro1G 1A6 apps
- Danel Sinani1G 1A6 apps
Line movement
Iceland—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Luxembourg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Iceland, shaped mainly by International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1319Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a baseline, not our full model: it is our own simple model on its own, and the factors above describe it. A baseline claims no edge over the market.