Inter vs Fiorentina prediction
Serie ARound 8
Inter12:30
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FiorentinaMost likelyInter win · 68%
Best price1.41 Onexbet
Prediction
68%1Intermarket 71%
20%XDrawmarket 18%
12%2Fiorentinamarket 11%
Inter-3.0 ppDraw+2.5 ppFiorentina+0.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Interpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 11% more than the typical book | Fiorentinapays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 5.00 | 7.70 |
| Onexbet | 1.41best | 5.56best | 7.90best |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.37 | 7.25 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Inter at 1.41 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Inter
- W3-0PAR
- D2-2AR
- W5-3UDI
- L1-2RM
- W3-2NAP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Fiorentina
- L1-2GEN
- D1-1NAP
- W4-2VEN
- L1-2TOR
- L0-3FRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Inter
No reported absences.
Fiorentina
No reported absences.
Head to head
Inter 2Draws 1Fiorentina 1
- FIO 1-1 INT
- INT 3-0 FIO
- INT 2-1 FIO
- FIO 3-0 INT
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Inter
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.02last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.93last 4
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 19.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.6last 10
- Fouls
- 8.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Fiorentina
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 8
Line movement
Inter—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Fiorentina—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Inter result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)355Attacking xG form (home)8.18Pi-rating edge1.31Defensive xG form (home)5.39Attacking xG form (away)2.83Defensive xG form (away)1.97
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.