Ipswich vs Aston Villa prediction
Premier LeagueRound 12
Ipswich18:30
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Aston VillaMost likelyAston Villa win · 45%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Aston Villa win
Oddbert gives Aston Villa a 45% chance of winning.
30%Ipswich
25%Draw
45%Aston Villa
In 100 matches like this, Aston Villa would win about 45. In the other 55 or so, Aston Villa doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Ipswich win 30, Draw 25, Aston Villa win 45.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
30%1IpswichIpswich win
25%XDrawDraw
45%2Aston VillaAston Villa win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Ipswich meet Aston Villa. The model leans only slightly toward Aston Villa in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Aston Villa (45%), doesn't happen in about 55 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ipswich
- L1-2BOU
- D2-2HC
- D1-1NF
- L2-3MC
- W2-1FUL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Aston Villa
- D4-4MU
- L0-3BAR
- D1-1FUL
- W2-1MC
- W3-1VIK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ipswich
Absence data is not available for this match.
Aston Villa
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Ipswich 0Draws 2Aston Villa 0
- AV 1-1 IPS
- IPS 2-2 AV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ipswich
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.8last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- J. Enciso2G 2A10 apps
- L. Davis2G 1A10 apps
- Emersonn2G 1A10 apps
Aston Villa
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- N. Jackson8G 1A10 apps
- J. Manzambi3G 3A9 apps
- J. McGinn2G 4A10 apps
Line movement
Ipswich—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Aston Villa—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Aston Villa in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.46Expected goals (away)2.15Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-115Expected goals (home)1.58Home advantage (team-tuned)33.4Defensive xG form (away)2.02
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.