Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga prediction
UEFA Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 4
Kauno Žalgiris18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
RigaMost likelyRiga win · 43%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Riga win
Oddbert gives Riga a 43% chance of winning.
35%Kauno Žalgiris
22%Draw
43%Riga
In 100 matches like this, Riga would win about 43. In the other 57 or so, Riga doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Kauno Žalgiris win 35, Draw 22, Riga win 43.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
35%1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris win
22%XDrawDraw
43%2RigaRiga win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Riga (43%), doesn't happen in about 57 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Kauno Žalgiris
- L0-3FL
- L1-4BRA
- L0-4BRI
- W1-0BEI
- L0-3BEI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Riga
- D1-1FJ
- D1-1PAF
- D1-1KA
- W2-1KK
- D0-0KK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Kauno Žalgiris
Absence data is not available for this match.
Riga
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Kauno Žalgiris
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.60last 3
- xG against / game
- 2.62last 3
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.6last 10
- Shots
- 8.0last 7
- Shots on target
- 2.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.7last 6
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
Player data from 4 of 10 matches
- Vykintas Slivka2G 0A4 apps
- Amine Benchaib1G 1A3 apps
- Renan Oliveira1G 0A2 apps
Riga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.67last 3
- xG against / game
- 1.05last 3
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 8
- Shots
- 17.5last 6
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 8
- Fouls
- 12.6last 7
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 8
Key players
Player data from 6 of 10 matches
- Caio Ferreira2G 0A4 apps
- Salah Oulad M'Hand1G 1A5 apps
- Ahmed Ankrah1G 0A6 apps
Line movement
Kauno Žalgiris—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Riga—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Riga result here; the model's main factors are What's at stake (home) and League id. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.00League id848Attacking xG form (away)1.55Expected goals (away)1.06Expected goals (home)0.52Recent form (away)4.34
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.