Lazio vs Atalanta prediction
Serie ARound 14
Lazio18:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AtalantaMost likelyLazio win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lazio win
Oddbert gives Lazio a 49% chance of winning.
49%Lazio
26%Draw
25%Atalanta
In 100 matches like this, Lazio would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Lazio doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lazio win 49, Draw 26, Atalanta win 25.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
49%1LazioLazio win
26%XDrawDraw
25%2AtalantaAtalanta win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Lazio meet Atalanta. The model leans toward Lazio, shaped mainly by League id and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Lazio (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lazio
- D1-1NAP
- W2-1CAG
- W6-2SAS
- W2-1PAR
- W3-0JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atalanta
- W1-0MON
- D1-1KA
- L0-3PAR
- D2-2FIO
- D4-4FRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lazio
Absence data is not available for this match.
Atalanta
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lazio 1Draws 2Atalanta 1
- LAZ 0-2 ATA
- ATA 0-0 LAZ
- ATA 0-1 LAZ
- LAZ 1-1 ATA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lazio
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.63last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.23last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- T. Noslin4G 4A9 apps
- M. Zaccagni2G 5A9 apps
- G. Isaksen4G 1A10 apps
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
Key players
- N. Krstović7G 2A9 apps
- C. De Ketelaere1G 3A10 apps
- E. Elmas2G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Lazio—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atalanta—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Lazio, shaped mainly by League id and What's at stake (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
League id135What's at stake (away)0.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)178Fixture congestion (home)0.00Attacking xG form (away)2.26Pi-rating edge0.14
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.