Lazio vs Lecce prediction
Serie ARound 12
Lazio15:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LecceMost likelyLazio win · 69%
Best price1.42 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lazio win
Oddbert gives Lazio a 69% chance of winning.
69%Lazio
19%Draw
12%Lecce
In 100 matches like this, Lazio would win about 69. In the other 31 or so, Lazio doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lazio win 69, Draw 19, Lecce win 12.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
69%1LazioLazio winmarket 72%
19%XDrawDrawmarket 18%
12%2LecceLecce winmarket 10%
Our model vs market
Lazio -3.0 ppDraw +1.4 ppLecce +1.6 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Lazio meet Lecce. The model leans toward Lazio, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Laziopays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Leccepays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.42best | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.25best | 8.20best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lazio at 1.42 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Lazio (69%), doesn't happen in about 31 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lazio
- D1-1NAP
- W2-1CAG
- W6-2SAS
- W2-1PAR
- W3-0JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lecce
- D1-1TOR
- L1-2GEN
- L1-5FRO
- L0-2JUV
- W3-0UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lazio
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lecce
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lazio 2Draws 1Lecce 1
- LEC 0-0 LAZ
- LAZ 2-0 LEC
- LAZ 0-1 LEC
- LEC 1-2 LAZ
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lazio
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.63last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.23last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- T. Noslin4G 4A9 apps
- M. Zaccagni2G 5A9 apps
- G. Isaksen4G 1A10 apps
Lecce
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.84last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 14.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- L. Coulibaly2G 1A7 apps
- K. N’Dri2G 0A10 apps
- Tiago Gabriel1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Lazio—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lecce—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Lazio, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.90Recent form (away)2.12Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)304Expected goals (home)1.84Home advantage (team-tuned)33.7What's at stake (away)0.15
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.