Lazio vs Parma prediction
Serie ARound 8
Lazio20:45
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ParmaMost likelyLazio win · 60%
Best price1.61 Onexbet
Prediction
60%1Laziomarket 63%
24%XDrawmarket 23%
16%2Parmamarket 14%
Lazio-3.0 ppDraw+1.1 ppParma+1.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Laziopays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Parmapays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.05 | 6.35 |
| Onexbet | 1.61best | 4.17best | 6.53best |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.07 | 6.26 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.80 | 5.80 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lazio at 1.61 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lazio
- W3-1MON
- W2-0VEN
- D2-2AM
- W2-1UDI
- W1-0GEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Parma
- L0-3INT
- W2-1GEN
- L1-2COM
- D1-1MON
- L0-2JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lazio
No reported absences.
Parma
No reported absences.
Head to head
Lazio 1Draws 2Parma 1
- LAZ 1-1 PAR
- PAR 0-1 LAZ
- LAZ 2-2 PAR
- PAR 3-1 LAZ
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lazio
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.26last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Parma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.65last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.88last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.7last 10
- Shots
- 8.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Line movement
Lazio—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Parma—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Lazio result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)0.63Attacking xG form (home)1.73Pi-rating edge0.57What's at stake (home)0.13Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)197Away form (away)1.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.