Le Havre vs Auxerre prediction
Ligue 1Round 7Stade Océane
Le Havre17:15
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AuxerreMost likelyAuxerre win · 36%
Best price3.00 Onexbet
Prediction
36%1Le Havremarket 39%
27%XDrawmarket 28%
37%2Auxerremarket 33%
Le Havre-2.9 ppDraw-0.1 ppAuxerre+3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Le Havrepays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Auxerrepays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Betvictor | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.42 | 2.92 |
| Onexbet | 2.52 | 3.51best | 3.00best |
| Pinnacle | 2.52best | 3.39 | 2.89 |
| Sbo | 2.32 | 3.10 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Auxerre at 3.00 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
11.84units · 1.2% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Le Havre
- L0-1LIL
- L2-3TOU
- D0-0ANG
- L1-2SB2
- D1-1LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Auxerre
- L1-4REN
- W2-1SB2
- W1-0NIC
- L1-3LYO
- L1-3ANG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Le Havre
No reported absences.
Auxerre
No reported absences.
Head to head
Le Havre 3Draws 1Auxerre 0
- LH 1-1 AUX
- AUX 0-1 LH
- AUX 1-2 LH
- LH 3-1 AUX
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Le Havre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Auxerre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.98last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Océane, Le Havre
Line movement
Le Havre—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Auxerre—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Auxerre result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-91.6Home advantage (team-tuned)3.70Away form (away)2.19Recent form (home)1.00Pi-rating edge-0.05League id61.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.