Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Ligue 1Round 9Stade Océane
Le Havre19:00
Fri 30 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Paris Saint GermainMost likelyParis Saint Germain win · 73%
Prediction
12%1Le Havre
15%XDraw
73%2Paris Saint Germain
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Le Havre
- L0-1LIL
- L2-3TOU
- D0-0ANG
- L1-2SB2
- D1-1LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Paris Saint Germain
- W3-1LM
- W2-1MAR
- W1-0SB2
- W6-1SB
- L1-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Le Havre
No reported absences.
Paris Saint Germain
No reported absences.
Head to head
Le Havre 0Draws 0Paris Saint Germain 4
- LH 0-1 PSG
- PSG 3-0 LH
- PSG 2-1 LH
- LH 1-4 PSG
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Le Havre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Paris Saint Germain
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.87last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.37last 8
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 20.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 6.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Océane, Le Havre
Line movement
Le Havre—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Paris Saint Germain—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Paris Saint Germain result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-451Pi-rating edge-1.61Attacking xG form (away)7.17Home advantage (team-tuned)3.70Home form (home)1.83What's at stake (home)0.13
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.