Le Havre vs Strasbourg prediction
Ligue 1Round 12Stade Océane
Le Havre20:45
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
StrasbourgMost likelyStrasbourg win · 52%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Strasbourg win
Oddbert gives Strasbourg a 52% chance of winning.
24%Le Havre
24%Draw
52%Strasbourg
In 100 matches like this, Strasbourg would win about 52. In the other 48 or so, Strasbourg doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Le Havre win 24, Draw 24, Strasbourg win 52.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
24%1Le HavreLe Havre win
24%XDrawDraw
52%2StrasbourgStrasbourg win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Le Havre meet Strasbourg. The model leans toward Strasbourg, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Strasbourg (52%), doesn't happen in about 48 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Le Havre
- L0-2LOR
- L1-5PSG
- L3-4MAR
- L1-3AUX
- L0-1LIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Strasbourg
- L1-3TOU
- W5-1AUX
- L0-3REN
- L1-3PSG
- L1-2NIC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Le Havre
Absence data is not available for this match.
Strasbourg
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Le Havre 2Draws 0Strasbourg 2
- LH 2-1 STR
- STR 1-0 LH
- STR 2-3 LH
- LH 0-3 STR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Le Havre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.55last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- J. Maja4G 0A10 apps
- R. Fofana2G 1A8 apps
- M. Samatta2G 0A10 apps
Strasbourg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.05last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.56last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Gessime Yassine4G 3A10 apps
- G. Reyna3G 0A10 apps
- Dário Essugo2G 1A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Océane, Le Havre
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 25,178
Line movement
Le Havre—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Strasbourg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Strasbourg, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-224Pi-rating edge-0.61Away form (away)1.94Home advantage (team-tuned)-7.94Attacking xG form (home)1.71Rest-days edge-0.85
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.