Le Mans vs Lille prediction
Ligue 1Round 12MMArena
Le Mans20:45
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LilleMost likelyLille win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lille win
Oddbert gives Lille a 44% chance of winning.
29%Le Mans
27%Draw
44%Lille
In 100 matches like this, Lille would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Lille doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Le Mans win 29, Draw 27, Lille win 44.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
29%1Le MansLe Mans win
27%XDrawDraw
44%2LilleLille win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Le Mans meet Lille. The model leans only slightly toward Lille in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Lille (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Le Mans
- D1-1MON
- L0-2ET
- D1-1AUX
- L0-3TOU
- L1-3PSG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lille
- W2-1REN
- D0-0BOD
- W1-0LEN
- D1-1MON
- L2-4GAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Le Mans
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lille
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Le Mans
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.40last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 14.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- L. Mafouta4G 1A10 apps
- A. Bourabaa3G 2A5 apps
- L. Calodat1G 2A10 apps
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.22last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- S. Diaoune3G 2A7 apps
- E. Mbappé2G 0A6 apps
- O. Giroud2G 0A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- MMArena, Le Mans
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 25,064
Line movement
Le Mans—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Lille in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.41Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-75.5What's at stake (home)0.11Defensive xG form (home)1.92Expected goals (home)0.81What's at stake (away)0.13
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.