Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction
Ligue 1Round 7MMArena
Le Mans20:45
Fri 16 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ToulouseMost likelyToulouse win · 44%
Best price2.45 Onexbet
Prediction
29%1Le Mansmarket 32%
27%XDrawmarket 27%
44%2Toulousemarket 41%
Le Mans-3.0 ppDraw+0.2 ppToulouse+2.8 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Le Manspays 6% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Toulousepays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.60best | 2.30 |
| Betvictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.38 |
| Onexbet | 3.08best | 3.54 | 2.45best |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.52 | 2.41 |
| Sbo | 2.73 | 3.20 | 2.22 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Toulouse at 2.45 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
12.42units · 1.2% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Le Mans
- L1-3PSG
- W2-1LOR
- D2-2LEN
- D1-1NIC
- L2-3REN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Toulouse
- D2-2MON
- W3-2LH
- D2-2LOR
- L0-1LIL
- D2-2SB2
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Le Mans
No reported absences.
Toulouse
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Le Mans
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 6
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.67last 6
- xG against / game
- 2.31last 6
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 6
- BTTS
- 6 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.8last 6
- Shots
- 10.5last 6
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 6
- Fouls
- 14.8last 6
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 6
Toulouse
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 16.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Venue
- Venue
- MMArena, Le Mans
Line movement
Le Mans—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Toulouse—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Toulouse result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-92.2Attacking xG form (away)1.93Defensive xG form (home)2.23Home advantage (team-tuned)63.7Pi-rating edge-0.03Recent form (away)4.29
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.