Lecce vs Atalanta prediction
Serie ARound 13
Lecce18:30
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AtalantaMost likelyAtalanta win · 48%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Atalanta win
Oddbert gives Atalanta a 48% chance of winning.
27%Lecce
25%Draw
48%Atalanta
In 100 matches like this, Atalanta would win about 48. In the other 52 or so, Atalanta doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lecce win 27, Draw 25, Atalanta win 48.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
27%1LecceLecce win
25%XDrawDraw
48%2AtalantaAtalanta win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Lecce meet Atalanta. The model leans toward Atalanta, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Atalanta (48%), doesn't happen in about 52 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lecce
- D1-1TOR
- L1-2GEN
- L1-5FRO
- L0-2JUV
- W3-0UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atalanta
- W1-0MON
- D1-1KA
- L0-3PAR
- D2-2FIO
- D4-4FRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lecce
Absence data is not available for this match.
Atalanta
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lecce 0Draws 1Atalanta 3
- LEC 0-3 ATA
- ATA 4-1 LEC
- ATA 1-1 LEC
- LEC 0-4 ATA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lecce
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.84last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 14.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- L. Coulibaly2G 1A7 apps
- K. N’Dri2G 0A10 apps
- Tiago Gabriel1G 1A9 apps
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
Key players
- N. Krstović7G 2A9 apps
- C. De Ketelaere1G 3A10 apps
- E. Elmas2G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Lecce—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atalanta—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Atalanta, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.79Home advantage (team-tuned)9.50What's at stake (home)0.12Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-120League id135Expected goals (home)0.88
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.