Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 3
Lech Poznan18:45
Thu 22 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SunderlandMost likelySunderland win · 37%
Prediction
32%1Lech Poznan
31%XDraw
37%2Sunderland
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lech Poznan
- L0-4CP
- D2-2FT
- W7-0FT
- W5-0KK
- W1-0KK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sunderland
- L0-2BRI
- L3-5MC
- W1-0AA
- L0-2ARS
- D1-1BRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lech Poznan
No reported absences.
Sunderland
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lech Poznan
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.75last 3
- xG against / game
- 0.79last 3
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 9
- Shots on target
- 6.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Sunderland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.72last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Line movement
Lech Poznan—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sunderland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Sunderland result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-12.2Home advantage (team-tuned)76.6Rest-days edge22.8Attacking xG form (away)2.13Attacking xG form (home)5.42Home form (home)7.88
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.