Leeds vs Ipswich prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14
Leeds16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
IpswichMost likelyLeeds win · 54%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Leeds win
Oddbert gives Leeds a 54% chance of winning.
54%Leeds
25%Draw
21%Ipswich
In 100 matches like this, Leeds would win about 54. In the other 46 or so, Leeds doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Leeds win 54, Draw 25, Ipswich win 21.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
54%1LeedsLeeds win
25%XDrawDraw
21%2IpswichIpswich win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 11 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Leeds meet Ipswich. The model leans toward Leeds, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and League id. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
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Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Leeds (54%), doesn't happen in about 46 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Leeds
- W1-0TOT
- L0-2BOU
- D0-0SUN
- D1-1MU
- L1-2ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Ipswich
- L1-2BOU
- D2-2HC
- D1-1NF
- L2-3MC
- W2-1FUL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Leeds
Absence data is not available for this match.
Ipswich
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Leeds
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.27last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- D. Calvert-Lewin3G 1A10 apps
- J. Bogle2G 0A10 apps
- N. Okafor2G 0A9 apps
Ipswich
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.8last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- J. Enciso2G 2A10 apps
- L. Davis2G 1A10 apps
- Emersonn2G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Leeds—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Ipswich—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Leeds, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and League id. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.99What's at stake (away)0.16Pi-rating edge0.60Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)195League id39.0Attacking xG form (home)1.07
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.