Leeds vs Manchester United prediction
Premier LeagueRound 7
Leeds15:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Manchester UnitedMost likelyLeeds win · 39%
Best price2.62 Onexbet
Prediction
39%1Leedsmarket 38%
28%XDrawmarket 26%
33%2Manchester Unitedmarket 36%
Leeds+0.0 ppDraw+2.5 ppManchester United-2.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Leedspays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Manchester Unitedpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.65 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Betvictor | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.65 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.64 | 2.66 |
| Onexbet | 2.62best | 3.74best | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.62 | 2.73best |
| Sbo | 2.33 | 3.26 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Leeds at 2.62 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
1.36units · 0.1% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Leeds
- L1-2ARS
- D0-0CP
- W4-1NEW
- D1-1BRI
- D1-1BRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Manchester United
- D1-1TOT
- D1-1FUL
- L0-1MC
- W4-0SF
- D2-2EVE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Leeds
No reported absences.
Manchester United
No reported absences.
Head to head
Leeds 1Draws 1Manchester United 0
- MU 1-2 LEE
- LEE 1-1 MU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Leeds
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.66last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Manchester United
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.37last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 19.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Line movement
Leeds—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Manchester United—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Leeds result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)2.76Attacking xG form (home)1.62League id39.0Home advantage (team-tuned)70.5Pi-rating edge0.23Defensive xG form (away)1.70
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.