Lens vs Sporting CP prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 2Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens18:45
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Sporting CPMost likelySporting CP win · 40%
Best price2.70 Betfair
Prediction
35%1Lensmarket 38%
25%XDrawmarket 25%
40%2Sporting CPmarket 37%
Lens-2.8 ppDraw-0.2 ppSporting CP+3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Lenspays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Sporting CPpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.70best |
| Betvictor | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Onexbet | 2.62best | 3.85 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.85best | 2.68 |
| Sbo | 2.36 | 3.35 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Sporting CP at 2.70 (Betfair).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
10.08units · 1.0% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lens
- W2-1LYO
- L1-2MON
- D2-2LM
- W3-2SP
- L0-1LOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sporting CP
- W3-1SB
- D2-2ARO
- D1-1FAM
- W3-1GAL
- W2-0NAC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lens
No reported absences.
Sporting CP
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lens
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.00last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Sporting CP
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.65last 7
- xG against / game
- 0.85last 7
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Igor Pajac
- Yellows / game
- 0.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Line movement
Lens—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sporting CP—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Sporting CP result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.71Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-135Attacking xG form (away)3.33Home advantage (team-tuned)64.6Attacking xG form (home)2.93Recent form (away)7.45
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.