Lille vs Auxerre prediction
Ligue 1Round 13
Lille17:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AuxerreMost likelyLille win · 53%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lille win
Oddbert gives Lille a 53% chance of winning.
53%Lille
25%Draw
22%Auxerre
In 100 matches like this, Lille would win about 53. In the other 47 or so, Lille doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lille win 53, Draw 25, Auxerre win 22.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
53%1LilleLille win
25%XDrawDraw
22%2AuxerreAuxerre win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Lille meet Auxerre. The model leans toward Lille, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Recent form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Lille (53%), doesn't happen in about 47 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lille
- W2-1REN
- D0-0BOD
- W1-0LEN
- D1-1MON
- L2-4GAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Auxerre
- L0-1PF
- L1-5STR
- D1-1LM
- W3-1LH
- L1-4REN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lille
Absence data is not available for this match.
Auxerre
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lille 2Draws 1Auxerre 1
- LIL 0-2 AUX
- AUX 3-4 LIL
- LIL 3-1 AUX
- AUX 0-0 LIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.22last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- S. Diaoune3G 2A7 apps
- E. Mbappé2G 0A6 apps
- O. Giroud2G 0A9 apps
Auxerre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.34last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.91last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 16.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- C. Archer6G 0A8 apps
- D. Namaso3G 2A10 apps
- R. Faivre1G 3A10 apps
Line movement
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Auxerre—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Lille, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Recent form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.75Recent form (away)1.94Attacking xG form (home)1.06Expected goals (away)0.64Away form (away)3.44Expected goals (home)1.76
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.