Lille vs Bayern München prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Lille21:00
Wed 25 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Bayern MünchenMost likelyBayern München win · 76%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bayern München win
Oddbert gives Bayern München a 76% chance of winning.
10%Lille
14%Draw
76%Bayern München
In 100 matches like this, Bayern München would win about 76. In the other 24 or so, Bayern München doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lille win 10, Draw 14, Bayern München win 76.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
10%1LilleLille win
14%XDrawDraw
76%2Bayern MünchenBayern München win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Lille meet Bayern München. The model leans toward Bayern München, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Bayern München (76%), doesn't happen in about 24 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lille
- W2-1REN
- D0-0BOD
- W1-0LEN
- D1-1MON
- L2-4GAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bayern München
- W2-1FM0
- W2-0AM
- D2-2BD
- W3-1SF
- D2-2ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lille
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bayern München
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.22last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- S. Diaoune3G 2A7 apps
- E. Mbappé2G 0A6 apps
- O. Giroud2G 0A9 apps
Bayern München
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 3.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.9last 10
- Shots
- 23.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 8.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Key players
- H. Kane7G 10A10 apps
- M. Olise5G 3A9 apps
- L. Diaz4G 1A6 apps
Line movement
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bayern München—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Bayern München, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.29Expected goals (away)3.83Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-259Recent form (away)8.54Attacking xG form (away)2.68What's at stake (away)0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.