Lille vs Lyon prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille20:45
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LyonMost likelyLille win · 41%
Best price2.37 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lille win
Oddbert gives Lille a 41% chance of winning.
41%Lille
27%Draw
32%Lyon
In 100 matches like this, Lille would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, Lille doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lille win 41, Draw 27, Lyon win 32.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
41%1LilleLille winmarket 41%
27%XDrawDrawmarket 28%
32%2LyonLyon winmarket 31%
Our model vs market
Lille -0.3 ppDraw -0.5 ppLyon +0.8 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Lille meet Lyon. Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans only slightly toward Lille in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Lillepays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Lyonpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.37best | 3.40 | 3.00best |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.56best | 2.97 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lille at 2.37 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Lille (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lille
- W2-1REN
- D0-0BOD
- W1-0LEN
- D1-1MON
- L2-4GAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lyon
- L0-2SB2
- D1-1RS
- W2-0ANG
- L0-2PSG
- L0-31H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lille
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lyon
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lille 0Draws 1Lyon 3
- LYO 1-0 LIL
- LIL 0-1 LYO
- LYO 2-1 LIL
- LIL 1-1 LYO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.22last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- S. Diaoune3G 2A7 apps
- E. Mbappé2G 0A6 apps
- O. Giroud2G 0A9 apps
Lyon
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- C. Tolisso4G 2A10 apps
- E. Nuamah4G 0A7 apps
- Keito Nakamura1G 3A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 50,083
Line movement
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lyon—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans only slightly toward Lille in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.10Attacking xG form (home)1.06What's at stake (home)0.15Away form (away)2.60What's at stake (away)0.21Rest-days edge0.09
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.