Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction
Ligue 1Round 7
Lille20:45
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Stade Brestois 29Most likelyLille win · 53%
Best price1.81 Marathonbet
Prediction
53%1Lillemarket 55%
27%XDrawmarket 24%
20%2Stade Brestois 29market 21%
Lille-2.3 ppDraw+3.0 ppStade Brestois 29-0.7 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Lillepays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Stade Brestois 29pays 9% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| Betvictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.79 | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.81best | 3.94 | 4.25 |
| Onexbet | 1.80 | 4.08best | 4.67best |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.99 | 4.50 |
| Sbo | 1.74 | 3.43 | 3.84 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lille at 1.81 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lille
- W1-0LH
- L1-2NIC
- W2-0ET
- L2-3RB
- W1-0TOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Stade Brestois 29
- W5-1ANG
- L1-2AUX
- L0-1PSG
- W2-1LH
- D2-2TOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lille
No reported absences.
Stade Brestois 29
No reported absences.
Head to head
Lille 1Draws 2Stade Brestois 29 1
- LIL 1-1 SB2
- SB2 3-3 LIL
- SB2 2-0 LIL
- LIL 3-1 SB2
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Stade Brestois 29
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 9
Line movement
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Stade Brestois 29—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Lille result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.77Attacking xG form (away)2.18What's at stake (home)0.18Defensive xG form (home)1.70What's at stake (away)0.01Recent form (home)5.58
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.