Lincoln vs West Ham prediction
ChampionshipRound 10Sincil Bank
Lincoln21:00
Wed 14 Oct
Prediction T-24h
West HamMost likelyWest Ham win · 55%
Best price1.68 Dafabet
Prediction
21%1Lincolnmarket 19%
24%XDrawmarket 23%
55%2West Hammarket 58%
Lincoln+2.0 ppDraw+1.1 ppWest Ham-3.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Lincolnpays 9% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | West Hampays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.00best | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Betvictor | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.10 | 1.68best |
| Marathonbet | 4.65 | 4.05 | 1.63 |
| Onexbet | 4.60 | 4.05 | 1.65 |
| Pinnacle | 4.52 | 4.26best | 1.67 |
| Sbo | 4.28 | 3.61 | 1.57 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — West Ham at 1.68 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lincoln
- L0-3SU
- L1-2SWA
- W1-0BC
- W1-0PRE
- D1-1SOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
West Ham
- D1-1QPR
- D2-2MIL
- W6-0WRE
- W3-2BOL
- W3-0DER
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lincoln
No reported absences.
West Ham
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lincoln
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 9
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 9
- xG for / game
- 1.40last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.11last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 9
- BTTS
- 4 / 9
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 9
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 9
- Shots
- 12.6last 9
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 9
- Fouls
- 14.1last 9
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 9
West Ham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.20last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Sincil Bank, Lincoln
Line movement
Lincoln—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
West Ham—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a West Ham result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-179Defensive xG form (home)0.88League id40.0Attacking xG form (away)2.46Rest-days edge-0.79What's at stake (home)0.15
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.