Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Premier LeagueRound 9Anfield
Liverpool17:30
Sun 1 Nov
Prediction T-24h
ArsenalMost likelyArsenal win · 48%
Prediction
26%1Liverpool
25%XDraw
49%2Arsenal
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Liverpool
- L0-3MC
- W1-0BOU
- D0-0FUL
- W2-1AM
- W2-0IPS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arsenal
- W2-1LEE
- L0-3BRI
- W2-0SUN
- W1-0NAP
- W2-1CHE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Liverpool
No reported absences.
Arsenal
No reported absences.
Head to head
Liverpool 1Draws 3Arsenal 0
- ARS 0-0 LIV
- LIV 1-0 ARS
- LIV 2-2 ARS
- ARS 2-2 LIV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Liverpool
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.61last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.24last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 15.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Arsenal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.72last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.85last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Anfield, Liverpool
Line movement
Liverpool—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arsenal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Arsenal result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-140Attacking xG form (away)3.56Pi-rating edge-0.46What's at stake (away)0.17Recent form (away)7.58Away form (away)7.98
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.