Lorient vs Monaco prediction
Ligue 1Round 7
Lorient17:15
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
MonacoMost likelyMonaco win · 44%
Best price2.10 Onexbet
Prediction
29%1Lorientmarket 27%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
44%2Monacomarket 47%
Lorient+2.6 ppDraw+0.4 ppMonaco-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Lorientpays 11% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Monacopays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.50 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betvictor | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.55 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.56 | 2.04 |
| Onexbet | 3.78 | 3.66best | 2.10best |
| Pinnacle | 3.90best | 3.45 | 2.02 |
| Sbo | 3.23 | 3.13 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Monaco at 2.10 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lorient
- W1-0PF
- L1-2LM
- D2-2TOU
- W1-0LEN
- L1-2ET
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Monaco
- D2-2TOU
- W2-1LEN
- D1-1STR
- W2-1PSG
- W2-0MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lorient
No reported absences.
Monaco
No reported absences.
Head to head
Lorient 2Draws 0Monaco 0
- MON 1-3 LOR
- LOR 3-1 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lorient
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.5last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Monaco
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Line movement
Lorient—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Monaco—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Monaco result here, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)7.68Pi-rating edge-0.13Recent form (home)5.28Attacking xG form (away)1.90League id61.0What's at stake (home)0.05
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.