Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League C - 5
Luxembourg20:45
Fri 13 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
EstoniaMost likelyLuxembourg win · 44%
Best price2.20 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Luxembourg win
Oddbert gives Luxembourg a 44% chance of winning.
44%Luxembourg
29%Draw
27%Estonia
In 100 matches like this, Luxembourg would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Luxembourg doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Luxembourg win 44, Draw 29, Estonia win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1LuxembourgLuxembourg winmarket 44%
29%XDrawDrawmarket 30%
27%2EstoniaEstonia winmarket 26%
Our model vs market
Luxembourg -0.3 ppDraw -0.9 ppEstonia +1.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Luxembourg meet Estonia. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans only slightly toward Luxembourg in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Luxembourgpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Estoniapays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.20best | 3.10 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.25best | 3.68best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Luxembourg at 2.20 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Luxembourg
- L0-2BUL
- L0-1EST
- L0-3ICE
- W2-1BUL
- W1-0ALB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Estonia
- D0-0ICE
- W1-0LUX
- D0-0BUL
- D1-1ICE
- W4-2CYP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Luxembourg
Absence data is not available for this match.
Estonia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Luxembourg 0Draws 0Estonia 1
- EST 1-0 LUX
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Luxembourg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 1 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- Vincent Thill3G 0A7 apps
- L. Barreiro1G 1A6 apps
- Danel Sinani1G 1A6 apps
Estonia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Rasmus Peetson1G 1A5 apps
- Maksim Paskotsi1G 0A7 apps
- Mattias Käit1G 0A7 apps
Line movement
Luxembourg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Estonia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans only slightly toward Luxembourg in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1319Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.