Lyon vs Lillestrom prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Lyon21:00
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LillestromMost likelyLyon win · 80%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lyon win
Oddbert gives Lyon a 80% chance of winning.
80%Lyon
12%Draw
8%Lillestrom
In 100 matches like this, Lyon would win about 80. In the other 20 or so, Lyon doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lyon win 80, Draw 12, Lillestrom win 8.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
80%1LyonLyon win
12%XDrawDraw
8%2LillestromLillestrom win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Lyon meet Lillestrom. The model leans toward Lyon, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Lyon (80%), doesn't happen in about 20 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lyon
- L0-2SB2
- D1-1RS
- W2-0ANG
- L0-2PSG
- L0-31H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lillestrom
- L0-1PLZ
- L0-6RS
- D1-1SP
- L1-2TOR
- W2-1ER
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lyon
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lillestrom
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lyon
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- C. Tolisso4G 2A10 apps
- E. Nuamah4G 0A7 apps
- Keito Nakamura1G 3A9 apps
Lillestrom
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 6
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 3
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 3
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 6
- BTTS
- 3 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.2last 6
- Shots
- 14.8last 4
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 6
- Fouls
- 11.0last 6
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 6
Key players
Player data from 4 of 6 matches
- T. Lehne Olsen2G 0A4 apps
- Vá0G 1A4 apps
- G. Nordh0G 1A3 apps
Line movement
Lyon—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lillestrom—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Lyon, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)460Pi-rating edge0.67Expected goals (away)0.23Expected goals (home)3.57What's at stake (away)0.00Recent form (away)1.88
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.