Lyon vs Monaco prediction
Ligue 1Round 12
Lyon20:45
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
MonacoMost likelyLyon win · 42%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lyon win
Oddbert gives Lyon a 42% chance of winning.
42%Lyon
26%Draw
32%Monaco
In 100 matches like this, Lyon would win about 42. In the other 58 or so, Lyon doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lyon win 42, Draw 26, Monaco win 32.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
42%1LyonLyon win
26%XDrawDraw
32%2MonacoMonaco win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Lyon meet Monaco. The model leans only slightly toward Lyon in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Home form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Lyon (42%), doesn't happen in about 58 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lyon
- L0-2SB2
- D1-1RS
- W2-0ANG
- L0-2PSG
- L0-31H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Monaco
- D1-1LM
- W2-0FN
- L1-3PF
- D1-1LIL
- W3-0SF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lyon
Absence data is not available for this match.
Monaco
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lyon 1Draws 0Monaco 3
- LYO 1-2 MON
- MON 1-3 LYO
- MON 2-0 LYO
- LYO 0-2 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lyon
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- C. Tolisso4G 2A10 apps
- E. Nuamah4G 0A7 apps
- Keito Nakamura1G 3A9 apps
Monaco
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.27last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Paris Josua Brunner4G 1A8 apps
- E. Diop2G 2A8 apps
- L. Camara1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Lyon—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Monaco—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Lyon in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Home form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.23Home form (home)10.6What's at stake (away)0.20Attacking xG form (home)0.98Pi-rating edge0.31Home advantage (team-tuned)82.4
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.