Lyon vs Nice prediction
Ligue 1Round 7
Lyon20:45
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
NiceMost likelyLyon win · 55%
Best price1.71 Onexbet
Prediction
55%1Lyonmarket 58%
26%XDrawmarket 23%
19%2Nicemarket 19%
Lyon-2.6 ppDraw+3.0 ppNice-0.4 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Lyonpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Nicepays 9% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.25best |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Betvictor | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.05 |
| Onexbet | 1.71best | 4.20 | 5.18 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.20best | 4.84 |
| Sbo | 1.62 | 3.64 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lyon at 1.71 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lyon
- L1-2LEN
- W4-0REN
- D0-0PF
- W3-1AUX
- D1-1LH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Nice
- W2-1STR
- W2-1LIL
- L0-1AUX
- D1-1LM
- L0-3PF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lyon
No reported absences.
Nice
No reported absences.
Head to head
Lyon 3Draws 0Nice 1
- LYO 2-0 NIC
- NIC 3-2 LYO
- NIC 0-2 LYO
- LYO 4-1 NIC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lyon
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.66last 6
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 6
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Nice
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.23last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.31last 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 12.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Line movement
Lyon—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Nice—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Lyon result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.74Attacking xG form (home)1.86Home advantage (team-tuned)91.5Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)253Rest-days edge1.76Home form (home)8.62
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.