Manchester City vs Fulham prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11Etihad Stadium
Manchester City13:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FulhamMost likelyManchester City win · 67%
Best price1.47 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Manchester City win
Oddbert gives Manchester City a 67% chance of winning.
67%Manchester City
20%Draw
13%Fulham
In 100 matches like this, Manchester City would win about 67. In the other 33 or so, Manchester City doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Manchester City win 67, Draw 20, Fulham win 13.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
67%1Manchester CityManchester City winmarket 68%
20%XDrawDrawmarket 18%
13%2FulhamFulham winmarket 14%
Our model vs market
Manchester City -0.8 ppDraw +1.6 ppFulham -0.8 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Manchester City meet Fulham. The model leans toward Manchester City, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Manchester Citypays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Fulhampays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.25 |
| Betano | 1.47best | 4.80 | 6.30 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.00best | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.90 | 6.50best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Manchester City at 1.47 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Manchester City (67%), doesn't happen in about 33 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Manchester City
- L1-3NF
- W3-2RL
- L0-1BRI
- L1-2AV
- W5-1AAF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Fulham
- D1-1NEW
- D1-1AV
- W1-0COV
- W1-0HC
- L1-2IPS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Manchester City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Fulham
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Manchester City 4Draws 0Fulham 0
- MC 3-0 FUL
- FUL 4-5 MC
- FUL 0-2 MC
- MC 3-2 FUL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Manchester City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.18last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- E. Haaland9G 0A9 apps
- P. Foden4G 1A7 apps
- R. Cherki4G 0A9 apps
Fulham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.46last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 9
Key players
- Joshua King2G 1A10 apps
- A. Iwobi1G 0A10 apps
- Oscar Bobb1G 0A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Etihad Stadium, Manchester
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 55,097
Line movement
Manchester City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Fulham—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Manchester City, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.06Attacking xG form (home)2.05Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)316Expected goals (home)1.95What's at stake (away)0.10What's at stake (home)0.09
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.